← Guides · November 8, 2026
How Long Until FIRE? Four Levers, Ranked by Impact
Start with $50,000 invested, $24,000 saved a year, $40,000 of yearly spending in retirement, a 5% real return and a 4% withdrawal rate. The FIRE number is $40,000 ÷ 0.04 = $1,000,000, and you get there in about 20.6 years.
Now change one lever at a time:
| Change | FIRE number | Years to FIRE |
|---|---|---|
| Base case | $1,000,000 | 20.6 |
| Save 20% more ($28,800/yr) | $1,000,000 | 18.6 |
| Return 4% instead of 5% | $1,000,000 | 22.6 |
| Return 6% instead of 5% | $1,000,000 | 19.0 |
| Spend $30,000 instead of $40,000 | $750,000 | 16.9 |
| Save only $12,000/yr | $1,000,000 | 29.2 |
What it shows
- Spending is the strongest lever. Cutting $10,000 a year lowers the target by $250,000 and removes the need to save it, so the date moves by about 3.7 years.
- Savings rate beats return. Saving 20% more saves two years, more than gaining a full point of return (1.6 years).
- Halving savings is costly. It adds more than eight years.
Try your own numbers in the calculator.